Paid Optimists Vs Paid Pessimists
It has been really hard for me to filter information during the pandemic. There is a barrage of misinformation or just completely made-up bullshit being passed around. And with this being America, you have the inevitable politicization of the issue at every turn.
I have begun to notice that most credible people giving advice (outside of the bad actors or just plain idiots) can be grouped into two camps: paid optimists and paid pessimists.
Now, if you know me, I’m an unrepentant optimist at heart. Over the long haul, I feel it has been a good bias to have. Especially for someone riding multiple tech waves. Long term trends have been better and better during my lifetime.
BUT ….
Every once in awhile, something really bad happens. It can just be local to your situation or it can be a global meltdown like we are watching now.
Great examples of the two types of experts are Peter Diamandis and Nassim Taleb.
I love Peter Diamandis. I devoured his books: Bold, Abundance, etc. He is the perfect example of a paid optimist. He sees a brighter future and people follow him and pay him based on that future. I really want to live in that future.
I respect Nassim Taleb. I have read many of his books also: The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, etc. He is one of the most interesting of the paid pessimists. He has a great talent at spotting huge risks that blow up systems. There isn’t a crisis every day for him to be right about, but when he is right, you better run.
So, when do you listen to which kind of expert? I noticed at the beginning of this crisis, the paid optimists sounded very tone-deaf. It just doesn’t seem congruent to post your normal glass is half-full stuff, when a giant tidal wave is cresting over the horizon.
BUT…
If all you listened to were paid pessimists, it would be hard to get excited about building a better future.
I reacted early to the pandemic. I’m not saying that to brag, and the jury is still out whether that was a prudent reaction.
My basic analysis was: anything that scares the Chinese into shutting down their economy has to be a really big deal. This is a country that is totally fine with dumping massive amounts of pollution on their population in order to grow faster. So their reaction got my attention. I don’t believe anything they say, but their actions spoke louder than words.
The second part of my analysis: what was the cost of being wrong?
- I look a little stupid to my family/friends (especially my in-laws)
- I have some extra food that takes a while to eat
- I don’t leave my home for a few weeks (or is it months)
I have no idea what I would have done if I was running a large restaurant chain. The cost of reacting early would be enormous. Since I work out of my home it doesn’t amount to a huge change in my behavior.
My take away is I need to have a balance of paid optimists and paid pessimists in my information stream. Until now I have basically ignored the pessimists. I am rebalancing my information sources to include them now. I don’t want to listen to negativity all the time, but need the proverbial canaries in the mine to give me an early warning.
My big question becomes how to find credible sources that aren’t just gloom and doom. Any suggestions as to who is a good source would be appreciated in the comments below. I love Taleb’s Twitter feed. I have learned a lot from how he analysis data and risk. I need more sources like that.
